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惠誉确认中石油集团,中油财务(香港)和中石油股份的评级(中英) ...

来源:网络 2013-08-19 17:28:55

  惠誉评级—香港—2013年8月13日:惠誉评级已确认中国石油天然气集团公司(中石油集团),中国石油财务(香港)有限公司(中油财务(香港))以及中国石油天然气股份有限公司(中石油股份)的‘A+’级长期外币和 ...

  惠誉评级—香港—2013年8月13日:惠誉评级已确认中国石油天然气集团公司(中石油集团),中国石油财务(香港)有限公司(中油财务(香港))以及中国石油天然气股份有限公司(中石油股份)的‘A+’级长期外币和本币发行人违约评级。评级展望均为稳定。完整的评级行动列表在本新闻稿末列出。

  根据惠誉的母子公司评级关联性的方法论,中石油集团的评级与其100%的所有者——中华人民共和国(中国,A+级/展望稳定)挂钩等同。同样,基于中石油股份和中油财务(香港)与其母公司中石油集团紧密的总体法律、运营和战略联系,这两家公司的评级与中石油集团挂钩等同。中石油集团独立的信用状况处于‘AA’级别的下方,这也意味着该评级受到主权评级的制约。

关键评级驱动因素

  大型综合性油气公司:中石油集团的产量和探明储量规模(2012年分别为1,673百万桶油当量和23,264百万桶油当量)与‘AA’级别的其它能源公司相当。其综合性的业务状况强劲,自产原油占到其2012年加工需求近80%,与其下游业务一起极大地降低了周期性业务的波动性。此外,公司还拥有大规模的汽油市场,以及石化和天然气中游业务。中石油集团产生现金的能力也非常强大;2012年运营资金流为3,460亿元人民币。

  对国家的战略重要性:中石油集团是国家能源供应链中不可分割的一部分。公司是中国最大的石油和天然气生产商,占到中国原油和天然气产量总量约60%。公司同时占到中国探明原油储量和探明天然气储量总量约64%和71%。中石油集团的运营活动受到中国政府的全面监管和控制,包括成品油定价和天然气产品价格,导致相关运营中产生亏损或较弱的利润率。

  中石油集团也负责为国家确保提供充足的能源资源。为保持较高的储量替换率和增长而进行的相关投资,包括并购行为给公司的净现金流产生能力带来较大负担。中石油集团过去三年的储量替换率超过100%。但是,国家继续为中石油集团提供支持,包括大规模的年度注资。

  中游业务改善:根据中石油股份2013年第一季财报最新数据,惠誉预期炼油业务的亏损在成品油定价机制改革后实质性下降。2013年3月,国家发改委调整了成品油定价方案,允许成品油价格调整更加及时地反映国际油价的变化,这将有助于炼油利润率的提高。惠誉还预期国内天然气价格也将进行改革,这也会有助于其天然气中游业务利润率逐步改善。

  投资给信用指标带来压力:为了保持100%的储量替换率而进行的投资活动给公司独立的信用指标带来压力。惠誉预期中石油集团的资本支出将在短期至中期内超过运营现金,导致持续产生负现金流。中石油集团的生产、勘探和开发成本处于上升趋势。

  公司的杠杆率和固定费用覆盖率仍然较强。但是,杠杆率(以调整后除去现金的债务与运营资金流之比计)从2010年和2011年的0.8倍弱化至2012年底的1.1倍。同样,其运营资金(FFO)固定费用覆盖率从2010年的18倍左右弱化至2012年的12倍左右。惠誉还预期中石油集团将实施更多的海外并购,这将对信用状况带来更大压力,特别是投资距出产时间较长的情况下。

  对中石油股份采取合并的评级方法:鉴于中石油集团持有中石油股份86.51%的股份以及中石油股份占到中石油集团探明石油与天然气储量总量约90%,惠誉对中石油集团和中石油股份的财务和运营状况采取合并的评级方法。

  对中油财务(香港)采取合并的评级方法:中油财务有限责任公司(中油财务)与中油财务(香港)一起作为中石油集团唯一的司库中心,集中进行财务结算、债务融资和现金管理。中石油集团任命全部中油财务董事会成员的高级管理人员,中油财务任命中油财务(香港)的全部董事会成员。中油财务与中油财务(香港)的董事会成员一起,任命中油财务(香港)的全部高级管理人员。中油财务的合并预算和商务计划须经中石油集团批准。

  为了债券持有人的利益,中石油集团和中油财务已执行与中油财务(香港)签订的支持协议。虽然这些支持协议并非担保,但仍然被认为对债券持有人有利,因为这些协议能确保中油财务和中油财务(香港)分别拥有足够的资源偿付其债务。但是,惠誉认为,将中油财务(香港)的评级与中石油集团的评级挂钩等同并不主要依赖于这些协议,而是基于对其总体的法律、运营和战略关系的评估。

评级敏感性

负面:对主权评级采取负面的评级行动

正面:对主权评级采取正面的评级行动,且国家与中石油集团,中石油集团与中石油股份和中油财务(香港)之间的评级关联性保持不变。

完整的评级行动列表如下:

中石油集团:

—长期外币(LTFC) IDR 确认为‘A+’级; 评级展望稳定

—外币(FC) 高级无担保评级确认为 ‘A+’级

—长期本币(LTLC) IDR确认为‘A+’级; 评级展望稳定

—本币(LC) 高级无担保评级确认为‘A+’级

中油财务(香港):

—LTFC IDR 确认为‘A+’级; 评级展望稳定

—FC 高级无担保评级确认为‘A+’级

—LTLC IDR确认为‘A+’级; 评级展望稳定

—LC 高级无担保评级确认为‘A+’级

中油财务(香港)为发行债券担保的特殊目的实体工具(SPV)

—CNPC (HK) Overseas Capital Ltd 确认为‘A+’级

—CNPC General Capital Ltd 确认为‘A+’级

—CNPC Golden Autumn Ltd 外币点心债发行确认为‘A+’级

中石油股份的评级:

—LTFC IDR 确认为‘A+’级; 评级展望稳定

—FC 高级无担保评级确认为‘A+’级

—LTLC IDR 确认为‘A+’级; 评级展望稳定

—LC 高级无担保评级确认为‘A+’级

—短期 FC IDR 确认为‘F1’

—短期 LC IDR 确认为‘F1’

英文:

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-13 August 2013: Fitch Ratings has affirmed China National Petroleum Corporation's (CNPC), CNPC Finance (HK) Limited's (CPFHK) and PetroChina Company Limited's (Petrochina) 'A+' Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings. The Outlooks on the IDRs are Stable. A full list of rating action can be found at the end of this release.

Under Fitch's parent and subsidiary rating methodology, CNPC's ratings are equalised with those of its 100%-owner, the People's Republic of China (China, A+/Stable). Similarly, the ratings of Petrochina and CPFHK are equalised with the ratings of parent CNPC based on their strong overall legal, operational and strategic ties. CNPC's standalone credit profile of CNPC is at the weak end of a 'AA' category; this also means its ratings are constrained by the sovereign.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Large integrated player: CNPC's scale, in terms of production and proven reserves (1,673 million boe and 23,264 million boe in 2012), is comparable to other energy companies in the 'AA' category. Its integrated business profile is strong with own crude production accounting for nearly 80% of its processing requirements in 2012. This, together with its downstream activities, significantly reduces cyclical business volatility. In addition, the company has large- scale petroleum marketing, petrochemical and gas mid-stream operations. CNPC's ability to generate cash is also strong; its fund flows from operations were approximately CNY346bn in 2012.

Strategic importance to the state: CNPC is an integral part of the country's energy supply chain. The company is China's largest oil and gas producer, accounting for approximately 60% of China's total crude oil and natural gas production. The company also accounts for approximately 64% and 71% of China's total proved crude oil reserves and proved natural gas reserves, respectively. CNPC's operating activity is subject to extensive regulations and controls by the PRC government, including those on refinery gate prices for fuels and natural gas which have led to losses or weak profitability in these operations.

CNPC is also responsible for securing adequate energy resources for the country. Related investments to maintain strong reserves replacement and growth including M&A place a significant burden on the company's net cash flow generation. For the past three years reserves replacement at CNPC has been over 100%. However, the state has continued to provide support to CNPC, including sizeable annual capital injections.

Improving mid-stream businesses: As evidenced in Petrochina's latest financial results for Q113 Fitch expects losses from the refinery business to narrow materially on the back of pricing reform. In March 2013 China's National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the price-setting mechanism to allow price changes to reflect global market adjustments in a more timely manner, which should help improve refining margins. Fitch also expects additional reforms on domestic natural gas prices, which should lead to improved profitability at its gas mid-stream operations over time.

Investments weigh on credit metrics: Investments required to maintain a 100% reserve replacement ratio are putting pressure on the company's standalone credit metrics. Fitch expects CNPC's capex to exceed cash generated from operations in the short- to medium-term leading to sustained negative free cash generation. At the same time, CNPC's production and finding and development costs are on an upward trajectory.

Its leverage and fixed charge coverage ratios are strong. However, its leverage as measured by adjusted debt net of cash to fund flows from operations weakened to around 1.1x at end-2012 from around 0.8x in 2010 and 2011. Similarly, its funds from operations (FFO) fixed charge coverage deteriorated to around 12x in 2012 from around 18x in 2010. Fitch also expects CNPC to increase its overseas M&A activity which can add pressure to its credit metrics, particularly if such investments have long lead time to production.

Consolidated approach for Petrochina: Fitch has taken a consolidated view of CNPC's and PetroChina's financial and operating profiles, given CNPC's 86.51% ownership of PetroChina and that PetroChina accounts for around 90% of total proven oil & gas reserves of the CNPC group.

Consolidated approach for CPFHK: China Petroleum Finance Limited (CPF) and CPFHK together function as the sole treasury centre for the CNPC group, centralising settlements, debt financing and cash management. CNPC appoints all CPF's board members and senior management members, while CPF appoints all of CPFHK's board members. CPF, together with CPFHK's board members, appoints all of CPFHK's senior management members. CPF's consolidated budget and business plans are approved by CNPC.

For the benefit of note holders, CNPC and CPF have executed keepwell agreements with CPFHK. These agreements, while not guarantees, are considered to be beneficial to note holders, as they ensure that CPF and CPFHK have sufficient resources to meet their financial obligations. However, in Fitch's view, equalising CPFHK's rating with CNPC's is not primarily dependent on these agreements, but is based on their overall legal, operational and strategic ties.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Negative: A negative rating action on the sovereign

Positive: A positive action on the sovereign, provided the rating linkages between the state and CNPC and CNPC, Petrochina and CPFHK remain intact

FULL LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

CNPC:

-Long-Term Foreign Currency (LTFC) IDR affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

-Foreign currency (FC) senior unsecured rating assigned at 'A+'

-Long-Term Local Currency (LTLC) IDR affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

-Local currency (LC) senior unsecured rating affirmed at 'A+'

CPFHK:

-LTFC IDR affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

-FC senior unsecured rating affirmed at 'A+'

-LTLC IDR affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

-LC senior unsecured rating affirmed at 'A+'

CPFHK's guaranteed SPVs for debt issuance:

-CNPC (HK) Overseas Capital Ltd affirmed at 'A+'

-CNPC General Capital Ltd affirmed at 'A+'

-CNPC Golden Autumn Ltd foreign currency dim sum issuance affirmed at 'A+'

Petrochina's ratings:

-LTFC IDR affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

-FC senior unsecured rating affirmed at 'A+'

-LTLC IDR affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

-LC senior unsecured rating affirmed at 'A+';

-Short-Term FC IDR affirmed at 'F1'

-Short-Term LC IDR affirmed at 'F1'
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