惠誉评级—香港—2013年8月14日：惠誉评级已将中国罕王控股有限公司（罕王）的长期发行人违约评级（IDR）和高级无担保评级从‘BB-’级下调至‘B+’级。IDR的评级展望为稳定。评级的下调反映了罕王铁精矿生产成本的持续上升和其在印度尼西亚投资面临的国家风险敞口的扩大。

　　成本持续上升：罕王2012年收购上马铁矿后导致2011年重列的现金生产成本比重列前上升了16%，至每吨292元人民币。而罕王的部分矿山由露天开采加快转为地下开采，以及原材料价格和资源税的上升（后者令2012年的现金成本比2011年高22%）也导致了生产成本的上升。惠誉估计罕王的铁精矿生产成本在2014年将比2012年上升12%。

　　虽然罕王的成本仍然低于行业平均水平，但也不再接近行业最低水平——这曾经是其‘BB-’级的评级的支持因素。由于成本的持续上升及疲软的铁精矿售价，惠誉预测罕王的铁精矿生产EBITDAR利润率在2013年之后将继续弱化至40%以下，在2015年期间将降至20%-30%左右。罕王的EBITDAR利润率从2011年的64.2%降至2012年的45.8%。罕王的铁精矿平均售价在2012年降至每吨830元人民币，同比下降22%。

　　由于全球铁矿石产能过剩，惠誉预期全球铁精矿价格将继续下降，在2015年及之后降至每吨90美元。

　　国家风险上升：罕王最新收购的印度尼西亚镍矿为公司带来较高的执行风险和国家风险——印度尼西亚新出台的外资所有权限制政策和原矿石出口禁令体现了这一点。根据该政策，外资在获得开采业务许可证后必须在运营第10年前逐步将所持印度尼西亚矿山的股份降至不多于49%。

　　印度尼西亚原矿石出口禁令将于2014年1月开始生效，也对罕王的镍矿运营带来实质性风险，虽然公司正在印度尼西亚投资炼化项目以获得出口配额。

　　金属产品多元化和产能扩张：罕王正在积极通过收购镍矿和金矿丰富其矿产组合，特别是缓解由铁精矿价格下滑导致的利润率下降。公司计划在未来五年内支出10亿元人民币扩大镍矿石和炼化产能。同时，公司还在调整铁矿石生产，计划将其铁精矿产量从2012年的160万吨上升至2015年的290万吨。产量的增长可以部分缓解EBITDAR利润率下降所带来的不利影响，提高罕王未来现金流的生成能力。

英文：

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-14 August 2013: Fitch Ratings has downgraded China Hanking's (Hanking) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating to 'B+' from 'BB-'. The Outlook on the IDR is Stable. The downgrade reflects Hanking's persistently rising cost of iron ore production and exposure to heightened country risk for its investment in Indonesia.

Key Rating Drivers

Persistently worsening cost position: Hanking's irreversible cost surge was driven by its 2012 acquisition of Shangma mine which drove up cash production cost by 16% to CNY292/ton in the restated number in 2011. The rising cost of production was also caused by an accelerated transition of part of Hanking's mining operations to underground from open-pit, and by an increase in both raw material prices and the resource tax (22% higher cash cost in 2012 than in 2011). Fitch estimates that Hanking's iron ore production cost in 2014 will be 12% higher than in 2012.

Although Hanking's cost is still below the industry average, it is no longer near the industry's lowest, which had supported its 'BB-' rating. Coupled with the prevailing weak iron ore average selling price (ASP), Fitch forecasts Hanking's iron ore production EBITDAR margin will deteriorate further to below 40% after 2013, and to 20%-30% around 2015. Hanking's EBITDAR margin fell to 45.8% in 2012 from 64.2% in 2011. Iron ore ASP fell to CNY830/ton for Hanking in 2012, a 22% drop YoY.

Fitch expects global iron ore prices to continue falling to reach USD90/tonne in 2015 and thereafter, due to overcapacity of global iron ore production.

Heightened country risk: Hanking's newly acquired Indonesian nickel mines expose the company to significant execution risk and country risk, as evidenced in Indonesia's new foreign ownership restriction and raw ore export ban. Foreign ownership in Indonesian mines must be progressively reduced to no more than 49% by the 10th year after the license issue.

Indonesian raw ore export ban, which takes effect January 2014, also presents material risk to Hanking's nickel mining operation, even though the company is investing in a refinery facility in Indonesia to secure approval for export quota.

Metal diversification, capacity expansion: Hanking is actively diversifying its mining portfolio by acquiring nickel and gold mines, partly to mitigate the profitability deterioration due to the iron ore price drop. The company plans to spend CNY1bn for the next five years on nickel ore mining and refinery capacities. Meanwhile, it is also ramping up iron ore production, with the aim to increase its iron ore concentrate production to 2.9mt in 2015 from 1.6mt in 2012. The production volume growth could partially mitigate the adverse effect of falling EBITDAR margin and improve Hanking's future cashflow generation.